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Real estate groups urged the Fed to stop rate hikes. Here’s why._我的网站

一 | 北京时间1月14日早些时候，TechCrunch报道说，密歇根州立大学的研究人员正在探索社交媒体成瘾的概念。    Major housing industry groups voiced "profound concern" in a letter this week urging the Federal Reserve to stop raising interest rates.The rare public admonishment from top business advocates -- including the National Association of Realtors and the National Association of Home Builders -- underscores a dramatic slowdown in the housing market due in large part to rising interest rates.The letter arrives roughly three weeks before the Fed plans to make its latest rate-hike decision.Mortgage rates have reached their highest level in more than two decades and they have continued to rise. Data released on Thursday showed that mortgage rates increased for the fifth consecutive week, according to Freddie Mac."The speed and magnitude of these [mortgage] rate increases, and resulting dislocation in our industry, is painful and unprecedented," the letter from the housing groups said.Here's what to know about why real estate groups called on the Fed to stop raising rates:

What's happening in the housing market?

Sky-high mortgage rates have dramatically slowed the housing market, since homebuyers have balked at stiff borrowing costs and home sellers have opted to stay on mortgages that lock them into relatively low rates.Mortgage applications have fallen to their lowest level since 1996, the Mortgage Brokers Association said earlier this month.Sales of previously owned homes, meanwhile, have plummeted more than 15% compared to a year ago, the National Association of Realtors found in August.The slowdown has coincided with a sharp rise in costs for potential homebuyers.The average interest rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage has climbed to nearly 7.6%, Freddie Mac data shows.When the Fed initiated the rise of bond yields with its first rate hike of the current series in March 2022, the average 30-year fixed mortgage stood at just 4.45%.Each percentage point increase in a mortgage rate can add thousands or tens of thousands in additional costs each year, depending on the price of the house, according to Rocket Mortgage.

What role is the Federal Reserve playing in the housing market slowdown?

An aggressive series of interest rate hikes at the Federal Reserve since last year has pushed up the 10-year Treasury yield, which loosely tracks with long-term mortgage rates.The Fed has fought elevated inflation with borrowing cost increases as it tries to slash price hikes by slowing the economy and choking off demand.While inflation has fallen significantly from a peak of about 9% last summer, price increases remain more than a percentage point higher than the Fed's inflation target.Price increases held steady in September, fresh data on Thursday showed, suggesting that elevated inflation remains resistant to the interest rate hikes.The persistence of elevated inflation has prompted the Fed to espouse a policy of holding interest rates at high levels for a prolonged period, which in turn has increased the 10-year Treasury yield and put upward pressure on mortgage rates.Moreover, the Fed expects to raise rates one more time this year, according to projections released last month.Speaking at a press conference in Washington, D.C., last month, Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged the continued effect of interest rates on mortgages, noting that activity in the housing market "remains well below levels of a year ago, largely reflecting higher mortgage rates."

What do the housing industry groups want the Fed to do?

Housing industry advocates want the Fed to take swift actions that reassure investors and other market participants of an end to the policies cooling the industry.Most notably, the industry groups want the central bank to release a statement saying that it has abandoned consideration of additional rate hikes.In their letter to Fed officials, the housing groups cautioned that a further slowdown in real estate could help tip the U.S. economy into a recession, scuttling the central bank's effort to achieve a "soft landing.""We urge the Fed to take these simple steps to ensure that this sector does not precipitate the hard landing the Fed has tried so hard to avoid," the letter said.。他们发现，在日常生活中，使用社交媒体网站的人表现出与可卡因或海洛因上瘾者相似的行为特征。

二 | 相关论文已发表在《行为成瘾杂志》上。该研究首先要求71名参与者使用Bergen-Facebook成瘾量表对他们使用Facebook的情况进行评分。然后，受试者继续完成爱荷华游戏任务（IGT），这是一个评估决策能力受损程度的经典研究工具。具体方法是向参与者展示四包卡片和四组卡片。

三 | 每张卡片都显示了获得或损失的金额。要求参与者在其中进行选择，以最大限度地提高收益。正如研究中解释的那样，“参与者还被告知，有些卡片比其他的好，如果他们想做得好，就应该避免坏卡片，选择好卡片。”研究人员发现，声称自己是Facebook过度用户的参与者在IGT上的表现比他们的同龄人差，他们选择了两张“坏”卡片，提供即时B。但最终导致了损失。

四 | 在IGT的后一部分，当参与者有足够的时间观察卡片并知道哪些卡片预测了最大的风险时，实验中显示的行为差异具有统计学意义。从额叶脑损伤患者到海洛因依赖者，IGT已被广泛应用于各个研究领域，但作为一种检测社交媒体依赖者的手段，它仍然是一种创新的方法。随着结构研究的不断深入，研究者们可以肯定地将现有的学习物质成瘾的方法论框架应用于社交媒体用户。虽然上述研究范围较窄，但很有意思，为后续研究提供了一些方法。研究人员已经意识到，在理想的研究状态下，研究人员可以观察参与者的社交媒体使用情况，并根据他们的行为而不是他们填写的调查对他们的社交媒体使用情况进行排名。未来的研究也可以更深入地应用于不同社交网络的过度使用用户。

五 | 目前，这项研究只关注Facebook的使用，“因为它是当今世界上使用最广泛的社交网络”，但人们可以预期，Instagram每月拥有超过10亿用户，而Twitter上瘾者则少得多。

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Published on:10:55:34